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<\/p>\nA CENSUS OPTIMIST \u2013 MORE TIME WILL LEAD TO MORE ACCURATE COUNT, SAYS MALDEF PRESIDENT<\/p>\n
By Pilar Marrero, Ethnic Media Services<\/p>\n
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Thomas Saenz, President and General Counsel of MALDEF (Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund)”<\/p>\n
Editor\u2019s Note: Amidst growing concerns over pandemic-related delays in the census deadline, one veteran voting rights activist finds reason to hope and sees potential for gains in representation by underserved groups, especially Latinos.<\/p>\n
EMS contributing editor Pilar Marrero is an author and veteran reporter for La Opinion.<\/p>\n
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LOS ANGELES — Thomas Saenz is that rare voting rights advocate who is optimistic about delays created by the COVID 19 pandemic in filling out census forms \u2013 and in submitting data for use in redistricting.<\/p>\n
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Delaying the deadline for data used to redraw voting districts for seats in the U.S. House and state legislatures\u00a0 will negatively affect elections in several states, redistricting reformers like Common Cause argue. They have asked Congress to review a request from the Census Bureau for a four month delay.<\/p>\n
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Saenz, president and general counsel of the Mexican American Legal defense and Educational Fund (MALDEF), sees the delay as a way to ensure a more accurate census count. That\u2019s the key, he argues, to ensuring fairer political representation, whether on school boards, city councils, state legislative and congressional districts \u2013 even elections for local dog catcher.<\/p>\n
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Despite the low self-response rates for Latino areas, Saenz believes there\u2019s a real potential for more Latino representation in the 2021 redistricting across the country.<\/p>\n
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\u201cThe low response rates were expected.\u00a0 This delay gives not only the Census Bureau but \u00a0groups like NALEO, all of us, more time to get people to respond.\u00a0 And the more time we get, the more complete the count.\u00a0 Some people just take time to be convinced and often on the ordinary timeline, there\u2019s not enough time to do that,\u201d Saenz says.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis was never going to be a great Census because of the Trump Administration which is the most divisive ever,\u201d Saenz adds on reflection.\u00a0 \u201cBut again, having more time is good.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Saenz pins hopes on increases in the census count in Texas, where the gains in Latino immigration over the last decade have been dramatic.\u00a0 \u201cEven if the state is not investing any money in outreach, it\u2019s projected Texas can get up to three new Congressional seats, and at least one or two of those should be Latinos.\u201d He predicts push back from the state legislature, which conducts redistricting, unless the Democrats take the state house in the upcoming elections, Then, he says, it\u2019s a different ball game.<\/p>\n
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California, on the other hand, may lose a seat but Saenz says it won\u2019t be a Latino one.\u00a0 \u201cI expect to see a current seat that isn\u2019t Latino becoming Latino.\u201d And he expects to see a gain in Arizona and possibly one in Illinois, given the increase in both states\u2019 Latino population.\u00a0 \u201cIllinois has one Latino majority seat and I expect it to become two, if the population has increased there as I expect it has. This might be the time\u201d<\/p>\n
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Redistricting usually starts with the delivery of \u201capportionment counts\u201d to the President on or before Jan 1\u00a0 — the total population count of each state and the number of congressional seats to which each state is entitled based on that count.\u00a0 The total number of seats is fixed at 435, but the population of each state determines whether they win or lose districts every 10 years.\u00a0 Redrawing legislative districts based on census data usually begins on April 1, at the latest.<\/p>\n
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Because the whole Census operation has been delayed by the pandemic, the Census Bureau has asked Congress to extend the deadline for delivering data about Congress to April 30, 2021, and to the states to July 31, 2020.<\/p>\n
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Saenz sees potential pluses in delaying reapportionment of the House of Representatives from the end of December to April. It may actually mean a new President will be in office who won\u2019t try to discount immigrants in the redistricting count, Saenz says.<\/p>\n
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Last July the Trump Administration issued an executive order to have departments collect \u201ccitizenship data\u201d for the Census Bureau. It is a move widely seen as building the case for states to restrict redistricting counts to citizens only \u2013 rather than immigrants. The executive order came on the heels of the\u00a0 Supreme Court\u2019s ruling prohibiting the addition of a question about citizenship in the Census questionnaire.<\/p>\n
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Delaying state data will also allow a new president to \u201cstop any mischief\u201d regarding the use of citizenship data to exclude non citizens from redrawing legislative districts.\u00a0 \u201cA new administration can come in in a deliberate manner and stop that from going on\u2026 If more time is needed to gather and deliver the data, \u00a0they should not waste time on the executive order anyway. They must concentrate resources on tabulating the questionnaires, and not in having departments turn over citizenship data to the Census Bureau.\u201d<\/p>\n
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One argument against postponing the data is that redistricting will be a rushed process. Here again, Saenz takes a pragmatic view.\u00a0 \u201cTexas is always a rushed process because the legislature is only in session for two months \u2013 March and April \u2013 and they have an early filing deadline for candidates in 2022.\u00a0 In the worst case, they may have to change the deadline.\u00a0 For us, if there is a legal challenge to their redistricting, it will be a burden, but it\u2019s okay.\u201d<\/p>\n
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In California, it\u2019s not the legislature but a commission of appointees that oversees redistricting. Saenz says the commission can do some of its work before the data is released, starting with testimony from communities about their interests in being represented,\u00a0 \u201cThey won\u2019t know the numbers or be able to promote maps, but they can say: \u2018We don\u2019t want to split this area.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n
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Redistricting advocates worry about Virginia and New Jersey which hold legislative e elections in 2021.\u00a0 Saenz says, \u201cMaybe they will have an election without new lines.\u00a0 Is that a disaster? In my mind it\u2019s not.\u201d<\/p>\n
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For Saenz, \u00a0the significant increase in the Latino population over the last decade will create real opportunities for more political representation in the decade ahead.\u00a0 More time\u00a0 gives him reason to hope for a more accurate count.<\/p>\n
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