{"id":43952,"date":"2022-01-20T15:57:49","date_gmt":"2022-01-20T23:57:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lapost.us\/?p=43952"},"modified":"2022-01-20T15:57:49","modified_gmt":"2022-01-20T23:57:49","slug":"the-stakes-of-russian-aggression-for-ukraine-and-beyond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lapost.us\/?p=43952","title":{"rendered":"The Stakes of Russian Aggression for Ukraine and Beyond"},"content":{"rendered":"
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01\/20\/2022 02:09 PM EST<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State<\/p>\n

Berlin, Germany<\/p>\n

Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences<\/p>\n

SECRETARY BLINKEN:<\/strong>\u00a0 Good afternoon.\u00a0 First, let me say how honored I am by the presence of so many friends, colleagues, leaders across different communities here in Germany, and also leaders in the partnership that links our two countries.\u00a0 I\u2019m grateful to all of you for being here, grateful for this opportunity as well to be at the Academy of Sciences and Humanities.\u00a0 I heard a little bit from Sigmar about the history, briefly walked the hallways, and I very much appreciate this hospitality.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s an institution with an extraordinary tradition of scholarship, discovery stretching back more than 300 years.\u00a0 And I understand that, among other luminaries, Albert Einstein was a member here, so I should probably let you know that my remarks today will include very little about astrophysics, which will be to everyone\u2019s benefit.<\/p>\n

I want to thank all the institutions that are cohosting us, including Atlantik-Br\u00fccke.\u00a0 By the way, my own history with the Br\u00fccke, the bridge, goes back well more than 20 years.\u00a0 I remember very well spending time with visiting colleagues from Germany during the Clinton administration.\u00a0 But it\u2019s pleasure to be with you, the German Marshall Fund, the Aspen Institute, the American Council on Germany.\u00a0 And I can\u2019t not acknowledge a great friend, colleague going back to my university days, the Clinton administration, the Obama administration, Dan Benjamin.\u00a0 It\u2019s wonderful to see you as well.<\/p>\n

Over the years, these organizations have helped build, strengthen, and deepen the ties between our countries.\u00a0 One of the markers of a strong democracy is a robust, independent civil society, and I\u2019m grateful to our cohosts for their contributions to democracy on both sides of the Atlantic and, again, for bringing us together today.<\/p>\n

So as Sigmar said, and as all of you know, I have come to Berlin at a moment of great urgency for Europe, for the United States, and, I would argue, for the world.\u00a0 Russia is continuing to escalate its threat toward Ukraine.\u00a0 We\u2019ve seen that again in just the last few days with increasingly bellicose rhetoric, building up its forces on Ukraine\u2019s borders, including now in Belarus.<\/p>\n

Russia has repeatedly turned away from agreements that have kept the peace across the continent for decades.\u00a0 And it continues to take aim at NATO, a defensive, voluntary alliance that protects nearly a billion people across Europe and North America, and at the governing principles of international peace and security that we all have a stake in defending.<\/p>\n

Those principles, established in the wake of two world wars and a cold war, reject the right of one country to change the borders of another by force; to dictate to another the policies it pursues or the choices it makes, including with whom to associate; or to exert a sphere of influence that would subjugate sovereign neighbors to its will.<\/p>\n

To allow Russia to violate those principles with impunity would drag us all back to a much more dangerous and unstable time, when this continent and this city were divided in two, separated by no man\u2019s lands, patrolled by soldiers, with the threat of all-out war hanging over everyone\u2019s heads.\u00a0 It would also send a message to others around the world that these principles are expendable, and that, too, would have catastrophic results.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why the United States and our allies and partners in Europe have been so focused on what\u2019s happening in Ukraine.\u00a0 It\u2019s bigger than a conflict between two countries.\u00a0 It\u2019s bigger than Russia and NATO.\u00a0 It\u2019s a crisis with global consequences, and it requires global attention and action.<\/p>\n

Here today, among this rapidly unfolding situation, I\u2019d like to try to cut through to the facts of the matter.<\/p>\n

To begin, Russia claims that this crisis is about its national defense, about military exercises, weapons systems, and security agreements.\u00a0 Now, if that\u2019s true, we can resolve things peacefully and diplomatically.\u00a0 There are steps we can take \u2013 the United States, Russia, the countries of Europe \u2013 to increase transparency, reduce risks, advance arms control, build trust.\u00a0 We\u2019ve done this successfully in the past and we can do it again.<\/p>\n

And, indeed, it\u2019s what we set out to do last week in the discussions that we put forward at the Strategic Stability Dialogue between the United States and Russia, at the NATO-Russia Council, and at the OSCE.\u00a0 At those meetings and many others, the United States and our European allies and partners have repeatedly reached out to Russia with offers of diplomacy in a spirit of reciprocity.<\/p>\n

So far, our readiness to engage in good faith has been rebuffed, because in truth this crisis is not primarily about weapons or military bases.\u00a0 It\u2019s about the sovereignty and self-determination of Ukraine and all states.\u00a0 And at its core, it\u2019s about Russia\u2019s rejection of a post-Cold War Europe that is whole, free, and at peace.<\/p>\n

For all our profound concerns with Russia\u2019s aggression, provocations, political interference \u2013 including against the United States \u2013 the Biden administration has made clear our willingness to pursue a more stable, predictable relationship; to negotiate arms control agreements, like the renewal of New START, and launch our Strategic Stability Dialogue; to pursue common action to address the climate crisis and work in common cause to revive the Iran nuclear deal.\u00a0 And we appreciate how Russia has engaged with us in these efforts.<\/p>\n

And despite Moscow\u2019s reckless threats against Ukraine and dangerous military mobilization \u2013 despite its obfuscation and disinformation \u2013 the United States, together with our allies and partners, have offered a diplomatic path out of this contrived crisis. \u00a0That\u2019s why I\u2019ve returned to Europe \u2013 Ukraine yesterday, Germany here today, Switzerland tomorrow, where I\u2019ll meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and once again seek diplomatic solutions.<\/p>\n

The United States would greatly prefer those to be the case, and certainly prefer diplomacy to the alternatives.\u00a0 We know our partners in Europe feel the same way.\u00a0 So do people and families across the continent, because they know that they will bear the greatest burden if Russia rejects diplomacy.\u00a0 And we look to countries beyond Europe, to the international community as a whole to make clear the costs to Russia if it seeks conflict, and to stand up for all the principles that protect all of us.<\/p>\n

So let\u2019s look plainly at what\u2019s at stake right now, who will actually be affected, and who is responsible.\u00a0 In 1991, millions of Ukrainians went to the polls to say that Ukraine would no longer be ruled by autocrats but would govern itself.\u00a0 In 2014, the Ukrainian people stood up to defend their choice for a democratic and European future.\u00a0 They\u2019ve been living under the shadow of Russian occupation in Crimea and aggression in Donbas ever since.<\/p>\n

The war in eastern Ukraine, orchestrated by Russia with proxies that it leads, trains, supplies, and finances \u2013 well, that\u2019s killed more than 14,000 Ukrainians.\u00a0 Thousands more have been wounded.\u00a0 Entire towns have been destroyed.\u00a0 Nearly one and a half million Ukrainians have fled their homes to escape the violence.\u00a0 For Ukrainians in Crimea and the Donbas, the repression is acute.\u00a0 Russia blocks Ukrainians from crossing the line of contact, cutting them off from the rest of the country.\u00a0 Hundreds of Ukrainians are being held as political prisoners by Russia and its proxies.\u00a0 Hundreds of families don\u2019t know if their loved ones are alive or dead.<\/p>\n

And the humanitarian needs are growing.\u00a0 Nearly 3 million Ukrainians, including a million elderly people and half a million children, urgently need food, shelter, and other life-saving assistance.\u00a0 But of course, even Ukrainians who live far away from the fighting are affected by it. This is their country; these are their fellow citizens.\u00a0 And nowhere in Ukraine are people free from Russia\u2019s malign activities.\u00a0 Moscow has sought to undermine Ukraine\u2019s democratic institutions, interfered in Ukraine\u2019s politics and elections, blocked energy and commerce to intimidate Ukraine\u2019s leaders and pressure its citizens, used propaganda and disinformation to sow mistrust, launched cyber attacks on the country\u2019s critical infrastructure.\u00a0 The campaign to destabilize Ukraine has been relentless.<\/p>\n

And now Russia is poised to go even further.\u00a0 The human toll of renewed aggression by Russia would be by many magnitudes higher than what we\u2019ve seen to date.\u00a0 Russia justifies its actions by claiming that Ukraine somehow poses a threat to its security.\u00a0 This turns reality on its head.\u00a0 Whose troops are surrounding whom?\u00a0 Which country has claimed another\u2019s territory through force?\u00a0 Which military is many times the size of the other?\u00a0 Which country has nuclear weapons? Ukraine isn\u2019t the aggressor here; Ukraine is just trying to survive.\u00a0 No one should be surprised if Russia instigates a provocation or incident and then tries to use it to justify military intervention, hoping that by the time the world realizes the ruse it\u2019ll be too late.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s been a lot of speculation about President Putin\u2019s true intentions, but we don\u2019t actually have to guess.\u00a0 He\u2019s told us repeatedly.\u00a0 He\u2019s laying the groundwork for an invasion because he doesn\u2019t believe that Ukraine is a sovereign nation.\u00a0 He said it flat out to President Bush in 2008, and I quote, \u201cUkraine isn\u2019t a real country.\u201d\u00a0 He said in 2020, and I quote, \u201cUkrainians and Russians are one and the same people.\u201d\u00a0 Just a few days ago, the Russian ministry of foreign affairs tweeted in celebration of the anniversary of Ukraine and Russia\u2019s unification in the year 1654.\u00a0 That\u2019s a pretty unmistakable message this week of all weeks.<\/p>\n

And so the stakes for Ukraine come more fully into view.\u00a0 This is not only about a possible invasion and war.\u00a0 It\u2019s about whether Ukraine has a right to exist as a sovereign nation.\u00a0 It\u2019s about whether Ukraine has a right to be a democracy.<\/p>\n

This hasn\u2019t stopped with Ukraine.\u00a0 All the former Soviet socialist republics became sovereign nations in 1990 and 1991.\u00a0 One of them is Georgia.\u00a0 Russia invaded it in 2008.\u00a0 Thirteen years later, nearly 300,000 Georgians are still displaced from their homes.\u00a0 Another is Moldova.\u00a0 Russia maintains troops and munitions there against the will of its people.\u00a0 If Russia invades and occupies Ukraine, what\u2019s next?\u00a0 Certainly, Russia\u2019s efforts to turn its neighbors into puppet states, to control their activities, to crack down on any spark of democratic expression will intensify.\u00a0 Once the principles of sovereignty and self-determination are thrown out, you revert to a world in which the rules we shaped together over decades erode and then vanish.<\/p>\n

And that emboldened some governments to do whatever it takes to get whatever they want, even if that means shutting down another country\u2019s internet, cutting off heating oil in the dead of winter, or sending in tanks \u2013 all tactics Russia has used against other countries in recent years. That\u2019s why governments and citizens everywhere should care about what\u2019s happening in Ukraine.\u00a0 It may seem like a distant regional dispute or yet another example of Russian bullying, but at stake, again, are principles that have made the world safer and more stable for decades.<\/p>\n

Now alternatively, Russia says the problem is NATO.\u00a0 On its face, that\u2019s absurd.\u00a0 NATO didn\u2019t invade Georgia; NATO didn\u2019t invade Ukraine.\u00a0 Russia did.\u00a0 NATO is a defensive Alliance with no aggressive intent toward Russia.\u00a0 To the contrary, efforts by NATO to engage Russia have gone on for years, and unfortunately, been rejected.\u00a0 For example, in the NATO Russia Founding Act, which was intended to build trust and increase consultations and cooperation, NATO pledged to significantly reduce its military strength in Eastern Europe.\u00a0 And it\u2019s done just that.<\/p>\n

Russia pledged to exercise similar restraint in its conventional force deployments in Europe. Again, instead, it invaded two countries.\u00a0 Russia says that NATO is encircling Russia.\u00a0 In fact, only 6 percent of Russia\u2019s borders touch NATO countries.\u00a0 Compare that to Ukraine, which is now genuinely being encircled by Russian troops.\u00a0 In the Baltic countries and Poland, there are around 5,000 NATO troops who aren\u2019t from those countries, and their presence is rotational, not permanent.\u00a0 Russia has put at least 20 times as many on Ukraine\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n

President Putin says that NATO is, and I quote, \u201cparking missiles on the porch of our house.\u201d\u00a0 But it\u2019s Russia that has developed ground-launched, intermediate-range missiles that can reach Germany and nearly all NATO European territory despite Russia being a party to the INF Treaty that prohibited these missiles.\u00a0 In fact, Russia\u2019s violation led to the termination of that treaty, which has left us all less safe.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also worth noting that though Russia is not a member of NATO, it, like many non-NATO countries, has actually benefited from the peace, stability, and prosperity that NATO has helped make possible.\u00a0 Many of us remember vividly the tensions and fears of the Cold War era.\u00a0 The steps that the Soviet Union and the West took toward each other over those years to build understanding and establish agreed-upon rules for how our countries would act were welcomed by people everywhere because they turned down the heat and made military conflict less likely.\u00a0 Those breakthroughs are the result of a great deal of hard work by people on all sides.\u00a0 Now we\u2019re seeing that hard work come undone.<\/p>\n

For example, in 1975, all OSCE countries, including Russia, signed the Helsinki Final Act, which established 10 guiding principles for international behavior, including respect for national sovereignty, refraining from the threat or use of force, the inviolability of frontiers, the territorial integrity of states, the peaceful settlement of disputes, and non-intervention in internal affairs.\u00a0 Russia has since violated every single one of those principles in Ukraine and has repeatedly made clear its disdain for them.<\/p>\n

In 1990, the OSCE countries, including Russia, agreed to the Vienna Document, a set of confidence- and security-building measures to increase transparency and predictability about military activities, including military exercises.\u00a0 Now, Russia selectively follows those provisions.\u00a0 For example, it holds large-scale military exercises that it claims are exempt from the notification and observation requirements of the Vienna Document because they\u2019re conducted without prior notice to the troops involved.\u00a0 Last fall, Russia conducted military exercises in Belarus with more than 100,000 troops.\u00a0 It\u2019s impossible that those exercises were no notice.\u00a0 And Moscow has failed to provide information on its military forces in Georgia, to notify the OSCE of its massive troop buildup around Ukraine last spring, to answer Ukraine\u2019s questions about what it was doing, all of which are required under that 1990 agreement.<\/p>\n

In 1994, in a pact known as the Budapest Memorandum, Russia, the United States and Britain committed to, and I quote, \u201crespect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine and to refrain from the threat or use of force against\u201d the country.\u00a0 Those promises helped persuade Ukraine to give up their nuclear arsenal inherited after the dissolution of the USSR and which was then the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world.\u00a0 Well, we need only ask the people living in Crimea and Donbas what happened to those pledges.<\/p>\n

There are many more examples I could cite.\u00a0 They all support the same conclusion:\u00a0 One country has repeatedly gone back on its commitments and ignored the very rules it agreed to despite others working hard to bring it along at every step.\u00a0 That country is Russia.\u00a0 Of course, Russia is entitled to protect itself, and the United States and Europe are prepared to discuss Russia\u2019s security concerns and how we can address them in a reciprocal way.\u00a0 Russia has concerns about its security and actions that it says the United States and Europe and NATO are taking that somehow threaten that security.\u00a0 We have profound concerns about the actions that Russia is taking that threaten our security.\u00a0 We can talk about all of that.\u00a0 But we will not treat the principles of sovereignty or territorial integrity enshrined in the UN Charter, affirmed by the UN Security Council, as negotiable.<\/p>\n

And if I could speak to the Russian people, I would say to them you deserve to live with security and dignity like all people everywhere, and no one \u2013 not Ukraine, not the United States, not NATO or its members \u2013 is seeking to jeopardize that.\u00a0 But what really risks your security is a pointless war with your neighbors in Ukraine with all the costs that come with it, most of all for the young people who will risk or even give their lives to it.<\/p>\n

At a time when COVID is running throughout the planet, we have a climate crisis, we need to rebuild the global economy, all of which demand so much of our attention and resources, is this really what you need \u2013 a violent conflict that will likely drag on?\u00a0 Would that actually make your lives more secure, more prosperous, more full of opportunity?\u00a0 And just think of what a great nation like Russia could achieve if it dedicated its resources, especially the remarkable talent of its human resources, its people, toward the most significant challenges of our time.\u00a0 We in the United States, our partners in Europe, we would welcome that.<\/p>\n

Tomorrow I\u2019ll meet with Foreign Minister Lavrov and I\u2019ll urge that Russia find its way back to the agreements it swore to over the decades and to working with the United States and our allies and partners in Europe to write a future that can ensure our mutual security but also make clear that that possibility will be extinguished by Russian aggression against Ukraine, which would also do the very thing Moscow complains about: bolster the NATO defensive alliance.<\/p>\n

These are difficult issues we\u2019re facing.\u00a0 Resolving them won\u2019t happen quickly.\u00a0 I certainly don\u2019t expect we\u2019ll solve them in Geneva tomorrow.\u00a0 But we can advance our mutual understanding.\u00a0 And that, combined with de-escalation of Russia\u2019s military buildup on Ukraine\u2019s borders \u2013 that can turn us away from this crisis in the weeks ahead.\u00a0 At the same time, the United States will continue to work with our allies and partners in NATO, the European Union, the OSCE, the G7, the United Nations, throughout the international community to make clear that there are two paths before Russia:\u00a0 the path to diplomacy that can lead to peace and security; and the path of aggression that will lead only to conflict, severe consequences, international condemnation.\u00a0 The United States and our allies will continue to stand with Ukraine and to stand ready to meet Russia on either path.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s no accident that I\u2019m offering these thoughts here in Berlin.\u00a0 Perhaps no place in the world experienced the divisions of the Cold War more than this city.\u00a0 Here, President Kennedy declared all free people citizens of Berlin.\u00a0 Here, President Reagan urged Mr. Gorbachev to tear down that wall.\u00a0 It seems a time that President Putin wants to return to that era.\u00a0 We hope not.\u00a0 But if he chooses to do so, he\u2019ll be met with the same determination, the same unity that past generations of leaders and citizens brought to bear to advance peace, to advance freedom, to advance human dignity across Europe and around the world.<\/p>\n

Thanks so much for listening.\u00a0 (Applause.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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