Experts say it’s difficult to project, but the tipping point could come this month

The COVID-19 delta variant surging through the United States could peak later this month, but experts say projections are difficult and much will depend on an unpredictable factor: human behavior.

The U.S. is expected to endure a rough next few weeks no matter what. The seven-day average for COVID-19 has risen in recent weeks to 85,866 cases per day as of Monday, the highest point since Valentine’s Day, according to data from The New York Times.

The boost in cases per day is higher than last summer’s peak of almost 67,000 cases but much lower than the winter highpoint of nearly 260,000.

A lot of what happens in the next few weeks will depend on the population, which Nicholas Reich, an associate professor of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, noted is “really hard to predict and really hard to control.”

“This is the sliver of optimism that we have is that the reason it’s hard to predict is because it’s sort of in our control as a society to change the trajectory,” he said. “But it requires everybody being careful and being vigilant and looking out for each other.”