California recall exposes the limit of Trump’s GOP

Barring a major surprise, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will bat back a recall effort on Tuesday.

Two recent polls have shown around 60 percent of California voters favor keeping Newsom in office. It’s a noticeable shift in a race that appeared much closer at the height of summer.

Newsom is spending lavishly on ads to juice Democratic turnout, and he’s also getting help from the biggest names in the party: Vice President Harris campaigned with him last Wednesday, and President Biden is due to do so Monday evening

But Newsom’s single biggest advantage comes in the shape of the person most likely to replace him, should he lose.