What Virginia’s early vote tells us about a tight-as-a-tick governor’s race
| Nearly three-quarters of a million Virginians have voted ahead of the closely-watched race between former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) and former Carlyle Group chief executive Glenn Youngkin (R), a contest that will provide a critical read on the political mood ahead of next year’s midterm elections.
Polling in the race is unanimous: Almost no matter the model a pollster uses to divine which voters will show up, McAuliffe and Youngkin are tied. It has been more than a month since any survey showed one candidate with an advantage outside the margin of error; the last six public surveys give McAuliffe an average advantage of 0.8 percentage points — effectively nothing. Early voting isn’t much more help. Voters in Virginia do not register by party, making it impossible to know whether more Democrats or more Republicans are showing up to cast their ballots. |
