Republicans face complicated reality post-Roe

The Supreme Court’s decision to strike down decades of precedent protecting access to an abortion was hailed as a win for conservatives, but the political reality for Republicans is likely to be far more complicated.


Polling has shown a majority of the American public disapproves of the Supreme Court’s position, and prominent Republicans have tip-toed around calls from some conservatives for stricter abortion laws around the nation.


Shifting conversation from economy: John Thomas, a Republican strategist who has worked on House campaigns, expected Democrats to see:

  • A spike in small-dollar donations
  • A distraction from the economic woes that have sunk President Biden’s approval ratings and been a central focus of Republicans on the campaign trail.

“In terms of the short term, this is a winning conversation for Democrats, particularly vulnerable Democrats where there are lots of college educated white women,” Thomas said. “This gives them a bit of a reprieve from what was otherwise considered just a brutal conversation on almost every front.”


Risks going forward: The risk, strategists say, lies in how vigorously Republican state legislatures and governors push for abortion bans and how Republicans handle the issue if they retake the majorities in Congress.


Aggressively pursuing abortion bans could backfire, given polling shows Roe was broadly popular.