Public Health Monitors Global, Local Data for Transmission Trends as Part of its Preparedness Efforts
As the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) marks more than six weeks of steady COVID-19 metrics, not recording any significant changes in case, death or hospitalization numbers, officials continue to monitor global and local data in preparation for mitigating any potential increases in COVID-19 transmission in Los Angeles County.
Two of the indicators that Public Health officials are tracking are: Seasonal COVID-19 trends observed locally in past years and current COVID-19 transmission in the Southern Hemisphere from April through September, during their winter, foreshadowing respiratory illness patterns that could be seen in the Northern Hemisphere this fall.
Los Angeles County experienced a COVID-19 summer surge in 2020, 2021 and 2022, with COVID hospitalizations increasing by up to 300 percent between June 1 and August 1 in each of those years. While there are no current signs of a summer surge in Los Angeles County, Public Health continues to monitor data to assess the impact of large 4th of July gatherings and increased travel on transmission rates in the summer of 2023. As a precaution, residents are encouraged to continue common-sense measures against COVID-19, including staying home when ill, testing when COVID-19 symptoms or exposure are present, and staying up to date on vaccines.
Public Health officials also are monitoring changing COVID-19 trends throughout the Southern Hemisphere in anticipation of what to possibly expect in Los Angeles County this winter. Current global case trends from the Southern Hemisphere indicate that low COVID transmission in summer does not preclude a winter surge.
One month ago, Australia reported a 28 percent increase in COVID-19 cases and experts declared a seventh COVID wave after a summer of steady case levels. Between the first week of June and the first week of July, COVID-19 deaths in Australia nearly quadrupled. Currently, according to data from the World Health Organization, reported cases are trending upward in Chile and New Zealand. Other Southern Hemisphere countries, including Brazil and Kenya, saw an uptick in cases over the past month with trends now starting to stabilize. While reported case numbers are generally an undercount due to wide availability of at-home testing, they are a reliable indicator of trends in COVID-19 transmission.
As the global pandemic continues, there are many potential drivers that can cause a rise in cases, including increased dominance of new COVID-19 strains. Based on the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) modeling for California and surrounding states, it is predicted that as of June 24, XBB.1.5 remains dominant, accounting for over 27 percent of COVID-19 cases with XBB.1.16 being the second most dominant, accounting for nearly 19 percent of cases. XBB.1.9.2 is estimated to account for about 15 percent of cases. The currently circulating COVID-19 strains in Los Angeles County are all descendants of Omicron.
Knowing that a virus with the potential for severe impact continues to circulate, Public Health maintains preparedness measures, including having therapeutics for COVID-19 treatment readily available at over 750 sites throughout the county and distributing test kits through libraries, community-based organizations, and Public Health vaccine sites. In June of 2023, over 1.1 million test kits were distributed across more than 2,000 sites. Protecting vulnerable people in the community is best accomplished when all residents take advantage of these resources, reducing the chance of unintentional transmission.
If people have questions about when to test, possible symptoms, recommended vaccines, or require telehealth services, the Public Health Call Center is available 7 days a week, from 8:00 am to 8:30 pm, at 1-833-540-0473.
“To those who have lost a loved one to COVID-19, please accept my sincere condolences. I hope that you find strength, peace, and healing during this very difficult time,” said Dr. Barbara Ferrer, Ph.D., M.P.H., M.Ed., Director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health. “When reflecting on the early days of the pandemic, I am struck by how much loss and uncertainty we lived with. And while today’s numbers reflect a much less dangerous time for so many, I am acutely aware that taking common-sense precautions and remaining prepared for potential changes in the future offers us the most sensible path forward. COVID-19 continues to pose a threat for the most vulnerable groups, long-COVID is real and disabling, and the virus is capable of mutating into a new variant of concern. For these reasons, we are committed to keeping COVID-19 tests, therapeutics, and vaccines widely available and accessible in LA County and are prepared to adjust strategies if transmission does rise. As has been the case for the last 3+ years, awareness and sensible actions help us minimize transmission while we enjoy all that LA has to offer.”
The CDC has replaced COVID-19 Community Levels with Hospital Admission Levels, which can help individuals and communities decide which prevention actions they can take based on the most recent information. Los Angeles County is in the Low Hospital Admission Level with 3.0 weekly COVID-19 hospital admissions per 100,000 people, reported on July 3 for the seven-day period ending June 24.
Public Health reports COVID-19 data weekly. The following table shows case, wastewater, emergency department, hospitalization, and death data in Los Angeles County over the past four weeks. All metrics remain stable at levels of low concern.
|
Metric |
Date of Weekly Report |
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|
7/5/2023 |
6/28/2023 |
6/21/2023 |
6/14/2023 |
|
|
Weekly cases reported1,2 |
1,741 |
1,794 |
1,817 |
1,716 |
|
SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration as a percentage of the Winter 2022-2023 peak concentration value3 |
8% |
8% |
10% |
17% |
|
7-day average of the percent of Emergency Department (ED) encounters classified as coronavirus-related3,4 |
2.0% |
2.4% |
2.6% |
2.7% |
|
7-day average number of COVID-positive hospitalizations3,4 |
211 |
233 |
242 |
215 |
|
Weekly deaths reported2 |
29 |
28 |
25 |
36 |
|
1) Case counts are an underrepresentation of the true number of infections, largely due to home tests which are not reported to DPH. Despite this, the trend in reported case counts from week to week is still an indicator of overall trends in transmission. |
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2) Weekly case and death counts represent the number of cases and deaths reported for the week ending each Tuesday. The date a case/death is reported by DPH is not the same as the date of testing or death. |
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3) Time periods covered by each metric: wastewater = week ending each Saturday, with a one-week lag; ED data = week ending each Sunday; hospitalizations = week ending each Saturday. |
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4) Data for past weeks is subject to change in future reports. |
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A wide range of data and dashboards on COVID-19 from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health are available on the Public Health website at http://www.publichealth.
- COVID-19 Locations & Demographics (data by demographic characteristics and geography, active outbreaks, and citations)
- COVID–19 Response Plan
- COVID–19 Vaccinations
- Skilled Nursing Facility Metrics
Always check with trusted sources for the latest accurate information about novel coronavirus:
- Los Angeles County Department of Public Health:
http://publichealth.lacounty.
- California Department of Public Health: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/
Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/ Immunization/nCOV2019.aspx - Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: https://www.cdc.gov/
coronavirus/2019 - CDC Spanish https://espanol.cdc.gov/enes/
coronavirus/2019–ncov/index. html - World Health Organization https://www.who.int/health–top
ics/coronavirus - LA County residents can also call 2-1-1
|
Cases through 12:00pm 7/3/2023 |
||
|
|
Total Cases |
NEW |
|
Laboratory Confirmed Cases^ |
3,757,342 |
1741 |
|
Deaths^ |
36,536 |
29 |
|
Cases by Age Group (Los Angeles County Cases Only-excl LB and Pas) |
|
|
|
– 0 to 4 |
112,362 |
|
|
– 5 to 11 |
283,362 |
|
|
– 12 to 17 |
278,055 |
|
|
– 18 to 29 |
760,387 |
|
|
– 30 to 49 |
1,137,983 |
|
|
– 50 to 64 |
617,291 |
|
|
– 65 to 79 |
266,448 |
|
|
– over 80 |
93,985 |
|
|
– Under Investigation |
2,561 |
|
|
Cases by Gender (Los Angeles County Cases Only-excl LB and Pas) |
|
|
|
– Female |
1,833,682 |
|
|
– Male |
1,627,792 |
|
|
– Other |
1,851 |
|
|
– Under Investigation |
89,109 |
|
|
Cases by Race/Ethnicity (Los Angeles County Cases Only-excl LB and Pas) |
|
|
|
– American Indian/Alaska Native |
6,731 |
|
|
– Asian |
264,921 |
|
|
– Black |
186,933 |
|
|
– Hispanic/Latino |
1,516,982 |
|
|
– Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander |
17,788 |
|
|
– White |
493,695 |
|
|
– Other |
408,578 |
|
|
– Under Investigation |
656,806 |
|
|
Hospitalization (Los Angeles County Cases Only-excl LB and Pas) |
|
|
|
– Hospitalized (Ever) |
179,261 |
|
|
Deaths by Race/Ethnicity (Los Angeles County Cases Only-excl LB and Pas) |
|
|
|
– American Indian/Alaska Native |
80 |
|
|
– Asian |
4,520 |
|
|
– Black |
3,254 |
|
|
– Hispanic/Latino |
16,924 |
|
|
– Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander |
121 |
|
|
– White |
9,253 |
|
|
– Other |
420 |
|
|
– Under Investigation |
91 |
