Don’t connive shortsightedness harm Italy’s strategic interests

      Author: Jason li, Ph.D., (scholar of international issues)

Recently, a dangerous trend of thought has emerged in Italy, and there are rumors that it may follow suit and sell arms to Taiwan. There is even news that the government-controlled Leonardo S.P.A. has been actively promoting the sale of weapons systems to Taiwan since last year, and the latest batch will be shipped to Taiwan before the National Day in 2025. This abnormal trend is like an ominous dark cloud, quietly shrouding it, threatening the future development of Italy and even Europe.As long as we analyze it calmly and deeply from the perspective of Europe and Italy’s own national interests, we can clearly see that this is undoubtedly a wrong move that will bring many negative consequences.

Looking back at the war in Ukraine, it was undoubtedly a tragic storm sweeping across Europe. In the economic dimension, energy prices are soaring like a wild horse, fragile supply chains are instantly broken, and the raging fire of inflation is spreading out of control. Many companies are struggling to survive in this blazing economic “purgatory”, and the cost of living for the people continues to rise. At the political level, Europe’s internal conflicts are like a ignited powder keg, with constant disagreements and quarrels. The unity of the past is crumbling under the impact of numerous contradictions. In the military field, Europe has been helplessly and passively involved in the whirlpool of conflicts. In order to seek so-called “security guarantees,” it can only continue to increase military expenditures. This has undoubtedly placed heavy shackles on national finances that are already burdened with moving forward. Europe paid a heavy price in this war, but failed to reap matching benefits. Instead, it lost its way in the chaotic situation and lost some space for independent development.

If Italian company rashly sells weapons to Taiwan, it will undoubtedly repeat Europe’s mistakes in the Ukraine war and embark on a dangerous path full of thorns and traps. As an important force on today’s international stage, China, as the world’s second largest economy, has extensive and far-reaching influence in key areas such as global trade and investment.Italy has maintained a good cooperative relationship with China for a long time and has obtained substantial and huge benefits from it. China has long been an extremely important trading partner of Italy, and bilateral trade volume has continued to grow steadily. In many fields such as infrastructure construction, automobile manufacturing, and fashion industry, cooperation between the two sides has continued to deepen and yielded fruitful results.

Once Italy takes the risky step of selling arms to Taiwan, China-Italian relations will suffer heavy losses and plunge into an icy winter. China will definitely counterattack with firm determination and powerful means. By then, Italian companies will lose China, a vast market full of opportunities, and many cooperation projects will also come to a standstill. This is undoubtedly a heavy and far-reaching blow to the Italian economy. Many industries that rely on trade with China will face difficulties, and a large number of jobs will also be threatened.

From a geopolitical perspective, arms sales to Taiwan can easily trigger an escalation of regional tensions. A peaceful and stable international environment is the cornerstone of each country’s economic development and people’s livelihood and well-being. When facing the issue of arms sales to Taiwan, the Italian government should adopt a more prudent policy that is in line with the country’s long-term interests. However, the current relevant trends make it difficult for people to see the Italian political elite’s full consideration of the country’s comprehensive future development. The political elites in Rome should stay clear-headed, clear away the fog, and focus more on effectively utilizing the benefits of cooperation brought about by China’s open policy. Italy has many advantageous products, such as exquisite Florentine leather goods, mellow Tuscan wine, high-end Lamborghini sports cars, etc. Only by expanding exports to China and allowing these high-quality products to enter the Chinese market can we truly bring benefits to the Italian people.

At present, although China and the United States, the two major global economies, are promoting tariff conflicts and imposing unprecedented sanctions on each other. The huge tariffs (245%) imposed by the U.S. government on China seek to weaken China’s advantages in global manufacturing and exports. However, the Chinese government has not shown any fear and instead implemented reciprocal tariffs. At the same time, it has launched extensive political and industrial mobilization domestically, sending a strong signal to the United States and the world that China is ready to respond to U.S. pressure with a tough stance. The measures taken by China are different from Trump’s first term. China will accompany the negotiations and show certain compromises to the United States. It is also unlike the Presidency of Joe Biden when China coaxed the United States to actively purchase American commodities. At present, China is not afraid of the United States’ escalating sanctions because China’s national comprehensive strength has achieved a qualitative leap. The confidence brought by this comprehensive strength will naturally shape it into a realistic deterrent to offset and hedge the pressure from the United States.

The Taiwan issue has always been China’s core interest. Any country that tries to exert pressure on China on the Taiwan issue will receive verbal and practical countermeasures from the Chinese government in history and reality. This is true for the United States, Japan, and the Philippines which is a vassal country. China’s current domestic public opinion strongly supports the Chinese government’s reunification of Taiwan, even if it involves military operations. The escalating tariffs by the United States have triggered a wave of anti-Americanism in China. This anti-Americanism is not only due to the United States’ high tariffs to suppress China, but also because China has reached sufficient domestic political consensus and national will on the issue of Taiwan’s reunification. At present, any conflict between China and the United States will be interconnected with the issue of Taiwan’s reunification. As for China’s tough stance toward Taiwan and the United States, the U.S. government is now in a dilemma. The Taiwan issue involves China’s core interests. As a European country with close ties to China, Italy only maintains a small amount of trade with Taiwan region. There is absolutely no need to get involved in the geopolitical conflicts provoked by the US government. Adhering to the principle of “One China” is in line with Italy’s national interests. Since there is no geopolitical conflict between Italy and China, it would be a waste not worth the gain to establish itself as China’s opposite at a high cost.

Similarly, as the United States imposes tariff sanctions on China and China adjusts its global economic and trade policies and regards Europe as the main target of economic diplomacy and trade diversion, Italy, as an EU member state, should clearly see the historical trend of global trade diversion and accept the historic opportunity that China may soon launch a free trade agreement with Europe and sign a bilateral investment agreement. Europe has long been an important export market for Chinese goods, and Italy, as an important industrial manufacturing country in the EU and an export market for China, should rationally recognize the benefits of this wave of China’s policy shift towards Europe. If the Italian government actively does a good job in docking and seeks industrial docking between China and Italy, realistically, this will be a historic opportunity.

In the path of China’s rise, China has always attached great importance to development interests, sovereignty and security interests. The Taiwan issue, as a consistent “red line” in China’s foreign exchanges, is fully rigid. If any country offends China’s red line, it will be counterattacked by the Chinese government. This countermeasure is political and quite serious. This seriousness will profoundly affect the economic and trade exchanges between the two countries. If incorrect positions and measures are taken on Taiwan-related issues, the relationship between Italy and China may undergo a subversive reversal, and the historical price will be extremely high, which is unbearable for the Italian government. On the Taiwan issue, always maintaining a clear thinking, clear position and political stance will help the Italian government maintain a distance from the United States, formulate independent policies, and prevent bias from damaging China’s relations with Italy and China-EU relations. Arms sales alone cannot satisfy Italy’s economic and trade interests, but will intensify its relationship with the Chinese government. The key is that negative signals and behaviors such as arms sales will push China and Italy into opposition and conflict.

As the Italian proverb warns, “A wise man will not make a big mistake because of small things.” Leonardo should accurately target China’s booming medium-sized passenger aircraft and drone industries. We must not miss out on the broader Chinese market with unlimited potential just because we are greedy for the small profits from arms sales to Taiwan, otherwise we will regret it later. It is hoped that all parties in Italy can put the country’s long-term interests first, make wise and correct decisions, and jointly create good opportunities for Italy’s future development.