Northern California Faces Above-Normal Wildfire Risk Through Fall — How to Prepare

As Californians head into a historically dangerous fall wind season, Northern California is expected to face above-normal wildfire risk through September.

Speaking during a July 8 media roundtable at PG&E’s Emergency Operations Center in Vacaville, company officials said more than half of the utility’s 70,000-square-mile service territory lies within high fire-risk zones, leaving millions of customers vulnerable as hot, dry winds arrive later this summer.

“Wildfire risk never really goes away, but there definitely is a peak season, and we’re just getting into that peak season now,” said Scott Strenfel, PG&E’s senior director of meteorology and fire science. “After a hot and dry summer, usually our live fuels and dead fuel moisture values — basically surface vegetation — is at its driest state and then we start to get the potential for wind events.”

CAL FIRE data shows 3,215 wildfires this year have burned 85,665 acres statewide as of July 9 — fewer fires than the five-year average of 4,352, though more acreage than the five-year average of 81,874.

However, the National Interagency Fire Center’s most recent four-month outlook, issued July 1, projects “above normal significant fire potential” across Northern California from July through September.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center also projects an 81% chance of a “very strong” El Niño weather pattern from October to December increasing the risk of heat waves, flash floods and landslides, particularly across central and southern California.

But while El Niño can increase winter precipitation and help reduce dry vegetation, Strenfel cautioned that “it’s not guaranteed,” noting that previous strong El Niño years have still brought near-average rainfall.

PG&E expands prevention

Since PG&E began its first Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) program in 2019 to mitigate such risks, the company has executed roughly 36 shutoffs.

“They’re not easy decisions, but they have to be made to protect the communities that we serve,” he said. “We want to put lines underground, we want to harden infrastructure, we want to remove vegetation, we want to do other things that reduce the risk, but let’s say we have overhead lines and there’s a high wind event coming, then the last resort is a public safety power shutoff.”

Tom Smith, PG&E’s senior manager of customer emergency planning and operations, said those pre-PSPS investments have expanded significantly in recent years across the 60% to 70% of California’s wooded territory that is within PG&E’s service territory.

In 2021, the company piloted a program to enhance power line safety settings so select circuits can cut power in one-tenth of a second if a tree branch or animal contacts a line, reducing the chance a spark reaches dry ground fuel; the program was expanded the following year to cover all circuits in high fire-threat districts, and now protects over 47,000 miles of powerlines statewide.

Over 100,000 miles of overhead powerlines are inspected by PG&E annually, leading to the pruning or removal of more than 1 million trees that may cause a wildfire or outage.

PG&E has also installed more than 1,600 weather stations and over 700 wildfire detection cameras statewide.

Resources for Californians

Illustrating the scale of vulnerability Californians face, Smith said the utility estimates that of its 5.8 million customers, more than 80% have some form of access and functional needs (AFN), including older adults, people with disabilities, households with young children, people with limited English proficiency and residents who rely on public transportation.

While all customers may sign up for outage alerts by phone or email, those enrolled in the Medical Baseline Program — which requires a doctor’s signoff — may receive additional alerts, discounted electricity rates, backup power assistance and a monthly credit for running medical equipment like oxygen machines or sleep apnea monitors.

Customers who don’t qualify may self-identify as vulnerable to receive extra shutoff notice and support for rebates, discounts and other programs like portable battery distribution.

“My favorite program,” said Smith, “is the Backup Power Transfer Meter Program, where we’ll come in and install a specialized meter that will allow you to plug a generator right into the meter itself, and then you can run everything in your house normally if the generator is big enough without having to run extension cords.”

Asked about generator risk, he said the danger isn’t the appliance itself but improper installation, which can “backfeed” power into the grid and endanger line workers during outages.

“Every year we hear of a very tragic story of someone running a generator inside a house and then dying of carbon monoxide exposure,” Smith explained, urging customers to never run a generator indoors, and to notify PG&E if they have a generator in order to get rebates and transfer help ahead of outages.

211 helpline

During PSPS outages, PG&E partners with California’s 211 network to help residents develop emergency plans, arrange transportation, hotel accommodations, food assistance and backup power resources.

Alana Hitchcock, executive director of 211 California, described the network as “a live assistance hotline, so think 911, but for every other type of help people need.”

“People who work with us and do that safety planning, they have fewer crises during the event,” she said. “If you’re experiencing housing insecurity, if you’re struggling to feed your family, 211 is there for you, call 211.”

211 is available 24/7, offers multilingual assistance and does not require callers seeking emergency planning help to disclose immigration status.

Asked about federal budget cuts, including the reconciliation bill HR.1, Hitchcock said 211’s nonprofit network has felt it directly “as local governments are having to change their funding to try to backfill those cuts.”

She added that 211 California is seeking emergency state funding for hardest-hit counties even as demand climbs — the network saw “up to a 400% increase in food security calls last November during the government shutdown and the SNAP crisis.”

With California now entering its most dangerous wildfire months, Strenfel said preparation is the most important defense for residents regardless of how this year’s weather ultimately develops.

“No matter what the situation looks like,” he said, “we’re going to be prepared to take action.”